|
AUGUST
2001
USS
Chicago (SSN 721) at scope depth, operating in clear water
off the coast of Malaysia. U.S. Navy photo by PM1 Kevin H.
Tierney.
|
| n o n p r o l i
f e r a t i o n i s s u e s |
in-stack 13
Aug 2001 |
"Nuclear
Weapons: An Exchange"
Colloquy in the Naval War College Review (Spring
2001)
This wryly-named colloquy consists
of three essays addressing the future of nuclear weapons: ADM Stansfield
Turner (former Director of Central Intelligence) leads, with responses by Dr.
Roger Barnett and Dr. Andrew Ross, both of the NWC faculty. A few years
ago, I had the pleasure of meeting Admiral Turner when he was discussing his
"nuclear escrow" concept before an international security seminar at
the Yale Law School. At the time, the question in my mind was how
comfortably one could assume that his general observations on deterrence were as
applicable to nuclear weapons in small numbers as they were to weapons in very
large numbers, given that so much strategic thinking (worldwide) has evolved in
a big-arsenal world. In any event, I thought that his escrow concept was
refreshingly novel, and look forward to getting caught up with the latest in
this long debate.
| r u s s i a / f
s u |
in-stack 13
Aug 2001 |
"S.B.
Ivanov, The New Russian Defence Minister"
Occasional Brief, Conflict Studies Research Centre (Mar
2001)
This is an interesting thumbnail
profile of the new Russian minister of defense, who brings a KGB/security
services background to the post rather than a professional military
history. Now that a former chekist with a soft spot for John Cleese
films is at the head of the armed forces, one imagines that it's going to be an
interesting year for Russian service politics.
| m a r i t i m
e d e v e l o p m e n t s |
in-stack 13
Aug 2001 |
"U.S.
Navy Ship 20th Century Historical Database"
Searchable vessel database hosted by the U.S. Naval War
College
This particular project took three
years to assemble and was ultimately donated by its creator, Michael Cardin, to
the U.S. Naval War College. Using a historical dataset drawn from the
multi-volume Dictionary of American Fighting Ships, it includes the
latest additions to the fleet and allows searches by name, class, type, and hull
number; includes data on foreign transfers and cancelled projects; and has a
very useful feature that will show you the complete active fleet roster on any
given date. That last handful of search tools make this an extremely
valuable force assessment tool.
| h o r i z o
n i s s u e s |
in-stack
12 Aug 2001 |
"The
Global Technology Revolution: Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and Their
Synergies with Information Technology by 2015"
RAND Corporation study for the National Intelligence
Council, available in PDF
Part of the broader Global
Trends 2015 project, this report was intended to provide an overview
of certain technologies that "have the potential for significant and
dominant global effects by 2015,"
and some "quick foresight" into the near-term technological
trends. As I do have some level of professional interest in those
commercial information technologies that may be becoming
"strategic" in the traditional sense, this one makes my office
reading list as well.
| h o r i z
o n i s s u e s |
in-stack
12 Aug 2001 |
"Global
Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernment
Experts"
National Intelligence Council study, published by
the NFIB (Dec. 2000), available in electronic form
The Global Trends 2015
study is medium-term strategic "bigthink," seeking to identify
the key "drivers" that will shape the globe fifteen years from
now. It casts a very wide net, assessing environmental, cultural,
and technological factors along with the more familiar political,
economic, and military trends. As the subtitle makes clear, the NIC
drew heavily upon resources outside the Intelligence Community, including
academics and (gasp) the non-Beltway private sector. (The preface,
written by NIC Chairman John Gannon, includes the following
understatement: "[This] is not a traditional intelligence
product based on classic intelligence sources, methods, and
procedures.") As is probably inevitable in an official study of
this scope signed by such a large group of experts, the ultimate
conclusions seem a little watery, but it provides a useful roadmap to the
future nonetheless. Unfortunately, though it is available in HTML,
the PDF link doesn't seem to be working properly.
| r u s s i
a / f s u |
in-stack
12 Aug 2001 |
"Warp
Drive Underwater"
Online article, Scientific American (May
2001)
Supercavitating weapons seem
to be in the mainstream press a lot lately. Scientific American
ran a feature a few months ago that covers the subject in some depth, and
includes a fair amount of detail about the premier operational example of
the technology, Russia's VA-111 Shkval rocket-torpedo. The Shkval
cutaway diagram, though speculative in key respects, is particularly
interesting.
| r u s s i
a / f s u |
in-stack
12 Aug 2001 |
MiG-29
Defector Alex Zuyev Killed in Yak-52 Crash
Link to Aero-News Network
coverage of crash
Last night I was reading the
current issue of the Tailhook Association's quarterly
journal, when I
noticed one "Mr. Alexander Zuyev" listed in the membership
obituaries. Zuyev, of course, was the VVS captain who in 1989 defected to
Trabzon, Turkey, bringing with his MiG-29 Fulcrum-A with him. (I still
have a newspaper clipping covering the incident saved in one of my files.) After being
granted asylum in the United States, Zuyev wrote a book (Fulcrum:
A Top Gun Pilot's Escape from the Soviet Empire) that remains one of the most accessible firsthand
accounts of Soviet tactical aviation in the waning years of the Cold War. He also became a popular personality on
the international airshow circuit. A quick web search turned up the sad
news that I had missed. On June 10, Zuyev and fellow well-known
aviator Jerry "Mike" Warren were killed when their Yak-52 entered and
failed to recover from an accelerated stall, resulting in a fatal crash near
Seattle. Condolences to their families and loved ones; they'll be missed.
| r e s
e a r c h , a n a l y s i s ,
& p r o d u c t i o n |
in-stack
12 Aug 2001 |
"Psychology of Intelligence Analysis"
Book, sponsored by CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence,
available in electronic form
This 1999 work by Richards J. Heuer, Jr.,
recently won an award from the International Association of Law Enforcement
Intelligence Analysts for "most significant contribution to the
literature." Written for the Center for the Study of Intelligence,
the book discusses various theories of cognitive bias that will be instantly
familiar to political scientists, and then applies that theoretical framework to
the process of intelligence analysis and production. If nothing else, it's
a useful reminder to examine our assumptions -- particularly those that we may not be aware that we're making. At the moment, it appears only to be
available via the web in chapter-by-chapter HTML (no PDF), which is a minor
annoyance.
Top of the
Stack || Back to Home Page || Contact
me |
